Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 3.676084 4.341628 5.080151 5.958553 6.972902 8.105439 9.463655
2025-07-20 2.712190 3.615264 4.728645 6.193302 8.059305 10.346159 13.348674
2025-07-27 2.121935 3.135225 4.500187 6.451696 9.144258 12.698407 17.708456
2025-08-03 1.656982 2.681987 4.174197 6.466635 9.851360 14.605938 21.714040
2025-08-10 1.274184 2.243332 3.757916 6.240468 10.133564 15.909379 24.996856
2025-08-17 0.980176 1.867698 3.349470 5.927488 10.198007 16.852865 27.810976
2025-08-24 0.798111 1.634627 3.117336 5.838440 10.570068 18.268064 31.455499
2025-08-31 0.661671 1.450733 2.929888 5.782142 10.967604 19.741050 35.317490
2025-09-07 0.589403 1.373006 2.916364 6.024017 11.896090 22.171737 40.980712
2025-09-14 0.506739 1.254671 2.802365 6.055252 12.439320 23.984321 45.751830
2025-09-21 0.437072 1.148178 2.691417 6.070602 12.945363 25.768693 50.626154
2025-09-28 0.376686 1.048702 2.576322 6.056378 13.384722 27.463275 55.480362
2025-10-05 0.360694 1.055362 2.697996 6.567270 14.954278 31.467772 65.054777
2025-10-12 0.325341 1.005318 2.683899 6.783649 15.951156 34.482812 73.060392
2025-10-19 0.297021 0.967282 2.691314 7.049269 17.084281 37.876329 82.108024
2025-10-26 0.259142 0.892835 2.595820 7.060000 17.661671 40.202001 89.247560
2025-11-02 0.215558 0.789494 2.406435 6.813097 17.626610 41.252208 93.893095
2025-11-09 0.175742 0.685869 2.194677 6.473390 17.327903 41.704001 97.326502
2025-11-16 0.150849 0.623604 2.084415 6.376675 17.591360 43.394154 103.516334
2025-11-23 0.130720 0.571666 1.993267 6.315591 17.932107 45.283557 110.290934
2025-11-30 0.122003 0.558926 2.017490 6.577595 19.116935 49.196575 121.838100
2025-12-07 0.108525 0.523773 1.964817 6.611416 19.714853 51.796755 130.637001
2025-12-14 0.096343 0.489880 1.909310 6.628037 20.268817 54.341146 139.509526